 |  | MORNING FIX BY CHRIS CILLIZZA |
"Democrats' young voter problem"
From the Washington Post
?? Does Obama have a leaky boat ?? @:~}
1. Less than 24 hours after President Barack Obama announced his plan to re-build the coalition that helped elect him in 2008, new numbers from Gallup suggest one of the pillars of that foundation is decidedly shaky.
1. Less than 24 hours after President Barack Obama announced his plan to re-build the coalition that helped elect him in 2008, new numbers from Gallup suggest one of the pillars of that foundation is decidedly shaky.
Less than one in four voters aged 18-29 described themselves as "very enthusiastic" about the 2010 midterm election. Those numbers compare unfavorably to voters between 50 and 64 (44 percent "very enthusiastic"), 65 and older (41 percent "very enthusiastic") and 30 to 49 (32 percent "very enthusiastic").
"The fact that voters under age 50 -- and particularly those under 30 -- are less enthusiastic about voting this year is not a new phenomenon," wrote Gallup's Frank Newport. "Voter turnout typically skews older."
While the data is in keeping with traditional voting patterns, it makes obvious the difficulty facing the White House as they seek to reconstruct the combination of young voters, independents and African Americans who helped propel Obama into the White House.
Looking back at exit polls from the last three presidential races, it's clear that the story is not how young people comprised larger and larger segments of the electorate but rather how much more Democratic they voted between 2000 and 2008.
In each of those three elections, the number of young voters as a percentage of the overall electorate was remarkably similar: 18 percent in 2008, 17 percent in 2004 and 17 percent in 2000.
What changed was how they voted. In 2000, young voters split their votes with 48 percent choosing Al Gore and 46 percent opting for George W. Bush. Four years later John Kerry carried 18-29 year olds by a nine-point margin; Obama won them by a whopping 66 percent to 32 percent.
The Gallup data affirms the clear Democratic tilt of young voters. On a generic congressional ballot test, 51 percent of 18-29 year old vote opted for the Democratic candidate while 39 percent chose the Republican. In every other age group, the generic was either statistically tied or the GOP candidate led. (Republicans' best age group was voters 65 and older who chose a GOP candidate by a 50 percent to 41 percent margin over a generic Democrat.)
Obama's pitch on Monday makes clear the White House understands the necessity of motivating these voters to turn out. But, knowing that you need to turn out young voters and actually doing it are two very different things.
2. The Cook Political Report downgraded Democrats' chances of holding onto the Illinois Senate seat Monday in the wake of the failure of state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias' family bank last Friday.
The Report, a former Fix employer and one of the two pre-eminent political handicappers in Washington, moved the race from its toss-up category to a "lean Republican" ranking.
"Some Democratic strategists believe that Giannoulias can weather this crisis and remain a competitive general election candidate," they wrote. "We are not so sure."
At issue is whether Giannoulias' decision to take the failure of Broadway Bank head on -- with an ad seeking to explain what happened and why -- is the right one.
Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.) defended Giannoulias on the issue on CNN's "John King USA" Monday noting that "he has been removed from that bank for over four years" and "had nothing to do with it because he's our state treasurer."
Cook writes that Democrats are likely to give Giannoulias' strategy a chance to work but that if his fundraising or polling numbers (or both) erode that the search for a replacement candidate is likely to start in earnest.
It's worth noting that Republicans have been close to silent about Giannoulias since the bank's failure, an approach similar to the National Republican Senatorial Committee's non aggression policy toward embattled Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) last year. Like Dodd, Republicans seem to believe that keeping Giannoulias in the race represents their best chance at winning the seat being vacated by appointed Sen. Roland Burris (D) this fall.
3. Controversial attorney Geoffrey Fieger leads the Democratic primary field for governor in a new independent poll, evidence of how bad off the party is in the Wolverine State.
Fieger, who gained notoriety as the lawyer for assisted suicide doctor Jack Kevorkian, took 28 percent in a survey done by EPIC-MRA for the Detroit Free Press. State House Speaker Andy Dillon placed second with 20 percent followed by Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero at 13 percent and state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith at eight percent. Twenty-nine percent of those tested were undecided on a candidate.
Fieger was the Democratic nominee against Gov. John Engler (R) in 1998 and spent $3.5 million of his own money but took just 38 percent of the vote. Since that bid, he has floated his name as a potential candidate for any number of statewide offices.
Fieger has yet to decide whether or not to run. But, should he run and win the nomination, national Democrats -- already sour on their chances -- would almost certainly walk away from the race entirely.
The Republican primary then is likely to decide the nominee. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, state Attorney General Mike Cox and wealthy businessman Rick Snyder make up the top tier.
4. Former Indiana Sen. Dan Coats (R) will be feted by Sens. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) and Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) at separate fundraising events tomorrow morning in Washington as he seeks to bolster his financial standing in advance of a May 4 primary fight.
Both events will be held at the Caucus Room -- a restaurant co-founded by Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour -- with the entrance fee set at $1,000 for individuals and $2,500 for political action committees.
Coats, who served a decade in the Senate before retiring in 1998, put together a surprisingly weak fundraising quarter -- collecting just $379,000 in the first three months of the year. While that total was more than either former Rep. John Hostettler (R) or state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R) raked in, it was far from the sort of total that put the GOP nomination squarely in Coats' hands.
(Stutzman's endorsement from South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint came after the March 31 first quarter deadline but should significantly improve the conservative favorite's cash flow.)
Thanks to his name identification and financial edge, Coats should win the primary a week from today and move on to face Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) in the state's open seat race. Anything short of a victory would be read as a blow to Senate Republicans who recruited Coats into the contest.
5. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum will head to new Hampshire on Friday to headline a local GOP dinner as he continues to put the pieces in place for a presidential run in 2012
.
Santorum will be in Keene, New Hampshire to serve as the keynote speaker at the Cheshire Country Republican party's annual Lincoln Day Dinner -- an event he describes as "an exciting opportunity to share my views on the challenges our country is facing today" which, of course, when passed through the Fix candidate translator means: "I am running for president".
In case you somehow missed that message from Santorum, don't forget that in recent weeks he has been in Iowa, South Carolina and his speech to the Southern Republican Leadership Conference last month in New Orleans.
Santorum, assuming he runs, will have some constituency among social conservatives for whom the issue of abortion is their main -- and in some cases only -- issue. But, as people like Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes have proven in past races, those voters along do not relevancy make.
Santorum's biggest problem? The last race he ran he lost by 18 points while outspending his Democratic opponent by $8 million. And, that defeat came in a state Republicans must find a way to be competitive in the 2012 general election.
}---Jim Donaldson----{
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